Receh.in – Two global asset managers—most notably BlackRock Inc.—accelerated accumulation of shares in PT Medco Energi International Tbk. (MEDC) immediately after the 2026 trading year opened, reinforcing institutional confidence in the stock despite heightened geopolitical volatility and mixed oil price signals.
Market Context
Shares of oil and gas issuers, including MEDC, moved into positive territory on Monday (January 5, 2026), following the escalation of political tensions between the United States and Venezuela. MEDC closed up 2.41 percent at Rp1,485 per share, extending its year-to-date gain to 10.41 percent.
Oil prices initially reacted with caution. Brent crude fell as much as 1.2 percent at the opening before reversing to a 0.21 percent gain at around US$60.88 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) edged up 0.09 percent to US$57.37 per barrel.
Despite political turbulence in Venezuela, the market response remained contained. Venezuela’s contribution to global oil supply remains limited, while the broader oil market continues to face concerns over excess supply. This capped upside momentum in crude prices and underscored that recent price movements were driven more by headline risk than by structural shifts in fundamentals.
Institutional Positioning
Against this backdrop, large asset managers moved decisively into MEDC.
According to Bloomberg ownership data dated January 5, 2026, BlackRock acquired an additional 234,400 MEDC shares in early 2026 trading. This lifted its total holding to 151.37 million shares, up from 151.13 million shares at the end of 2025. Over the course of 2025, BlackRock had already increased its MEDC stake by 21.48 million shares from its end-2024 position of 129.65 million shares.
American Century Companies followed a similar trajectory, accumulating 604,800 MEDC shares at the start of 2026. Its total ownership now stands at 72.78 million shares, up from 72.71 million shares previously. Throughout 2025, American Century expanded its MEDC position by 33.32 million shares from 39.39 million shares at the end of 2024.
The timing of these purchases—immediately after the new trading year began—suggests deliberate positioning rather than opportunistic trading, particularly in light of lingering geopolitical uncertainty and oil price volatility.
Analyst Consensus and Valuation
Sell-side sentiment toward MEDC remains broadly constructive. Of 20 analysts covering the stock, 19 recommend “buy” and one advises “hold.” The consensus 12-month target price stands at Rp1,701.88 per share, implying a potential upside of approximately 14.6 percent from current levels.
Ciptadana Sekuritas maintains a buy recommendation with a higher target price of Rp1,800 per share. According to analyst Richard Jonathan Halim, MEDC’s share price will remain sensitive to global oil price movements in the near term, particularly amid ongoing trade and geopolitical uncertainties.
However, operational fundamentals provide a stabilizing counterweight. MEDC benefits from tangible production growth, a relatively healthy balance sheet, and consistent dividend payments—factors that appear to underpin continued institutional interest.
Fundamentals: Mixed, but Contained
For the January–September 2025 period, Medco reported net profit attributable to shareholders of US$85.65 million, down 68.66 percent year-on-year from US$273.27 million. The decline was in line with softer top-line performance rather than operational stress.
Revenue for the nine-month period reached US$1.76 billion, down 1.46 percent from US$1.78 billion a year earlier. Oil and gas revenue slipped marginally by 0.76 percent year-on-year to US$1.59 billion, accounting for 92.97 percent of total contract revenue.
Segment performance was uneven. Construction revenue fell sharply by 79.11 percent year-on-year to US$15.46 million. In contrast, power sales rose 61.84 percent to US$55.30 million, operations and services revenue increased 48.83 percent to US$27.89 million, and other service contracts surged 161.20 percent to US$22.15 million.
Strategic Read-Through
The divergence between softer earnings and sustained institutional accumulation suggests that large investors are looking beyond short-term profit compression. Portfolio expansion—including assets such as the Sakakemang PSC and increased ownership in TGI—signals a longer-term growth narrative anchored in integration and future acquisition optionality.
In this context, MEDC appears to be treated less as a short-term oil price proxy and more as a strategic energy exposure with improving structural resilience. Institutional flows indicate confidence that earnings volatility tied to commodity cycles is manageable relative to the company’s medium-term asset and balance sheet profile.
Bottom Line
Institutional buying by BlackRock and American Century amid geopolitical noise and uneven oil price signals points to a clear conviction trade. While MEDC remains sensitive to crude price volatility, large investors appear to be positioning for medium-term value rather than reacting to near-term headlines.
For now, MEDC sits at the intersection of geopolitical risk, commodity cyclicality, and institutional confidence—an alignment that warrants close monitoring rather than simplistic headline-driven interpretation.
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